I really appreciate your informative response, it's very detailed and thorough, a high quality read.
I do believe we are all entitled to our opinions, let's see this from a financial perspective.
AI isn't new, even LLMs like ChatGPT aren't new, there were pre-existing models before, ChatGPT blew up because it has a lot more GPU processing power than any other AI model.
Why I think AGI is not coming soon is from a marketing perspective, Sam Altman needs funding and to secure Funding he must ensure there is "hype" in the market, Intelligence requires experience, such is my view. Current LLMs are predictive models that run language calculations to shoot out the best word following the best word and so on and so forth.
Plus, Sam Altman has been shifting the definition of AGI itself if you've been keeping up with his latest interviews and noticing changes.
Again, you seem like a learned individual which is why I think we should have each to their own.
Thank you for the comment however, very insightful.